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BULLETIN
Hurricane Agatha Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012022
1000 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022
 
...AGATHA EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN MEXICO LATER
TODAY...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN SPREADING INLAND ACROSS OAXACA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 97.1W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz to Lagunas de Chacahua
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz eastward to Barra De Tonala
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz eastward to Boca de Pijijiapan
* Lagunas de Chacahua westward to Punta Maldonado
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should closely monitor the
progress of Agatha.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Agatha was
located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 97.1 West. Agatha is
moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue through Tuesday.  On the forecast
track, the center of Agatha will make landfall in the state of
Oaxaca, Mexico, this afternoon or this evening.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Little change in strength is expected today before Agatha
reaches the coast of Oaxaca.  Rapid weakening is expected after
landfall, and Agatha is forecast to dissipate over southeastern
Mexico by late Tuesday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).  An observation in Puerto Angel recently reported a wind 
gust of 40 mph (65 km/h).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area and possible in the watch area by this afternoon.  Tropical
storm conditions have begun along the coast of Oaxaca and will
spread eastward within the warning area through the day.
 
STORM SURGE:  Storm surge is expected to produce extremely dangerous
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of
where the center of Agatha makes landfall.  Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
RAINFALL: Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of southern
Mexico through Tuesday night. The following rainfall amounts are
currently expected:
 
Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.
 
Mexican state of Chiapas: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.
 
Mexican states of Veracruz, Tabasco and eastern portions of
Guerrero: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches
possible.
 
SURF:  Large swells generated by Agatha will affect the coast of
southern Mexico during the next day or two.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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