ZCZC MIATCPEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Agatha Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012022
400 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022
 
...AGATHA ALMOST A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DETERIORATING IN SOUTHERN
MEXICO TONIGHT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 98.7W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz to Lagunas de Chacahua
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz eastward to Barra De Tonala
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Salina Cruz eastward to Boca de Pijijiapan
* Lagunas de Chacahua westward to Punta Maldonado
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should closely monitor the
progress of Agatha.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Agatha was located
near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 98.7 West. Agatha is drifting 
to the northeast near 1 mph (2 km/h), and a faster northeastward 
motion is expected to begin tonight.  On the forecast track,
the center of Agatha will make landfall in southern Mexico  
Monday afternoon or evening.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is expected during the 
next 12 to 24 hours and Agatha is forecast to become a major 
hurricane when it reaches the coast of southern Mexico on Monday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).
 
The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force 
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 964 mb (28.47 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area and possible in the watch area on Monday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning tonight or early Monday.
 
STORM SURGE:  Storm surge is expected to produce extremely dangerous 
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of 
where the center of Agatha makes landfall.  Near the coast, the 
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
RAINFALL: Agatha will produce heavy rains over portions of southern
Mexico through Tuesday night. The following rainfall amounts are
currently expected:
 
Mexican state of Oaxaca: 10 to 16 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 20 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.
 
Mexican state of Chiapas: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 15 inches possible. Life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides may occur.
 
Eastern portions of the Mexican state of Guerrero: 2 to 6 inches,
with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches possible.
Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides may occur.
 
Mexican states of VeraCruz and Tabasco: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated
maximum amounts of 6 inches possible.
 
SURF:  Large swells generated by Agatha will affect the coast of
southern Mexico during the next couple of days.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
NNNN