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Remnants Of Agatha Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
1000 AM CDT Tue May 31 2022
The mountainous terrain of southern Mexico continues to take a
toll on Agatha. Although a fairly well-defined mid-level
circulation is still evident in satellite imagery, the low-level
center has dissipated over southern Mexico. Therefore, this will
be the final advisory on Agatha. The initial intensity has been
lowered to 25 kt, and continued weakening should occur today. The
remnants are moving northeastward or 045/7 kt and this general
motion should persist for the next 48 h or so.
Deep convection, with heavy rainfall, extends across southeastern
Mexico and Guatemala. This moisture will spread eastward across
the remainder of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula,
Guatemala, and Belize during the next day or so. During this
time frame, numerical model guidance suggests that the remnants of
Agatha will be absorbed within a larger cyclonic gyre over
southeastern Mexico. Development within the broad low could occur
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or southeastern Gulf of Mexico
later this week. Please see NHC's Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
for more details.
Key Messages:
1. Heavy rains associated with remnants of Agatha will continue
over portions of southern Mexico through tonight. This will pose a
threat of potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 31/1500Z 17.3N 94.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS OF AGATHA
12H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
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Forecaster Brown/Bucci
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