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Hurricane Agatha Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
400 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022
Satellite imagery indicates that Agatha has made landfall along the
coast of southern Mexico just west of Puerto Angel within the past
half-hour. The landfall intensity is estimated to have been 90 kt,
which is based on several SFMR wind measurements from an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft around midday and subjective and
objective Dvorak intensity estimates. It is worth noting that the
minimum pressure decreased several millibars between the aircraft
center passes, which coincided with the eye becoming more apparent
in visible satellite imagery. These data along with a 1747 UTC GMI
microwave pass suggest Agatha may have completed an eyewall
replacement cycle around that time. The initial intensity remains 90
kt for this advisory, but rapid weakening should commence very soon
as the core of the hurricane interacts with the mountainous terrain
of southern Mexico. Agatha is forecast to dissipate over
southeastern Mexico by late Tuesday. The global models continue to
suggest that the mid-level remnants will merge with a broad low
pressure system near the Yucatan peninsula, and there is some
potential for development in the northwestern Caribbean Sea or
southern Gulf of Mexico later this week.
Agatha remains on a northeastward heading at about 7 kt. This
general motion should continue until dissipation occurs on Tuesday.
The updated NHC track forecast is once again near the middle of the
tightly clustered guidance envelope.
1. Extremely dangerous coastal flooding from storm surge,
accompanied by large and destructive waves, will continue through
this evening near and to the east of where Agatha made landfall.
2. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds will continue in portions
of the hurricane warning area in Oaxaca, Mexico, this evening.
Tropical storm conditions will spread eastward within the warning
area through tonight.
3. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will continue over portions of
southern Mexico through Tuesday. This will pose a threat of
life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/2100Z 15.7N 96.6W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
12H 31/0600Z 16.4N 95.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
24H 31/1800Z 17.3N 94.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 01/0600Z 18.0N 93.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND