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Tropical Storm Agatha Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012022
400 PM CDT Sat May 28 2022
 
Agatha continues to gain strength.  Satellite images show a 
persistent central dense overcast feature and curved bands that
wrap about halfway around the center.  An ASCAT-B pass from about
16Z showed peak winds of 40-45 kt.  More recently, the Dvorak
classifications range from 45 to 55 kt.  Based on all of this
satellite data, the initial intensity is increased to 50 kt.
 
The center of Agatha has been wobbling around for much of the day, 
but the general motion has been north-northwestward at 4 kt.  A 
continued slow and erratic northwest or north motion is likely 
through tonight, followed by a more steady northeastward motion on 
Sunday as the storm becomes embedded in the flow between a ridge to 
the east and a trough to its northwest.  This slightly faster 
northeastward motion should take Agatha to the coast of southern 
Mexico by late Monday.  Overall, the models have trended eastward 
and the official forecast has been nudged in that direction.
 
All of the large-scale environmental factors (wind shear, moisture,
SST/heat content) are expected to be close to ideal for Agatha until
it reaches the coast.  Accordingly, several of the rapid
intensification indices in the SHIPS model are higher than 70
percent.  Due to these factors and probabilistic guidance, the NHC
intensity forecast remains at the high end of models and shows rapid
intensification occurring in the short term. Rapid weakening is
forecast after the storm makes landfall, and although the storm is
expected to dissipate over the rugged terrain of southern Mexico,
the remnants are likely to move over the southwestern Gulf and the
Yucatan Peninsula around the middle of next week.
 
Based on the current forecast, the government of Mexico has issued
hurricane and tropical storm warnings for southern Mexico.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area
in southern Mexico on Monday, with tropical storm conditions
beginning there Sunday night.  Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the tropical storm warning area on Monday.
 
2. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will develop over portions of
southern Mexico by Sunday and continue through Tuesday.  This will
pose a threat of potentially life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/2100Z 13.8N  98.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  29/0600Z 14.0N  98.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  29/1800Z 14.4N  98.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  30/0600Z 14.9N  97.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  30/1800Z 15.7N  96.5W   85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
 60H  31/0600Z 16.5N  95.4W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 72H  31/1800Z 17.5N  94.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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