ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Depression One-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
1000 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022
The satellite presentation of the low pressure system that the NHC
has been monitoring south of the southern coast of Mexico for the
past several days has greatly improved this evening. Earlier
microwave data and visible satellite imagery showed increased signs
of curved convective bands wrapping around the low-level center.
More recently, SSMIS microwave data suggest the inner-core structure
of the cyclone has improved, and very cold infrared cloud tops have
spread over the center. The system has achieved sufficient
convective organization to be designated as the first depression of
the 2022 Eastern North Pacific hurricane season. The initial
intensity is set at 30 kt based on a subjective T2.0/30 kt Dvorak
classification from TAFB, although the initial intensity is somewhat
uncertain given the lack of recent scatterometer data.
The system is moving westward at 265/6 kt, and this general motion
is expected to continue for the next 12 h or so. A deep-layer trough
is forecast to amplify across the western U.S. this weekend, which
will weaken the ridge to the north of the cyclone. This will allow
the system to slowly turn northward on Sunday and then move
northeastward on Monday as it approaches southern Mexico. The
track models generally agree on this scenario, although the GFS is
somewhat further east than the rest of the guidance. The official
NHC forecast lies toward the center of the guidance envelope,
roughly in between the HFIP corrected-consensus approach (HCCA) and
the multi-model consensus aids.
Sea-surface temperatures greater than 30 deg C, weak deep-layer
vertical wind shear, and abundant mid-level moisture are expected to
support significant intensification of the cyclone this weekend. In
fact, all of the intensity guidance shows steady strengthening
during the next few days, and many models including the consensus
aids bring the cyclone to hurricane intensity within 48 h. The GFS
SHIPS-RII highlights the potential for rapid intensification of this
system, with a 52 percent chance of a 35-kt intensification in 24 h.
The official NHC intensity forecast shows steady strengthening
during the next few days, with the cyclone becoming a hurricane by
late Sunday with continued strengthening anticipated as it
approaches the coast on Monday. This forecast lies between the IVCN
and HCCA aids through 48-60 h, then falls on the higher end of the
guidance at 72 h as the official forecast track remains just off the
coast.
Tropical Storm and/or Hurricane Watches will likely be required
Saturday morning for portions of the coast of southern Mexico, and
interests in this region should closely monitor the progress of this
system.
Key Messages:
1. There is an increasing risk of tropical-storm-force and
hurricane-force winds along portions of the southern coast of Mexico
early next week, and Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches will likely
be required Saturday morning. Interests in this area should closely
monitor the progress of this system and updates to the forecast.
2. Heavy rains associated with Tropical Depression One-E will
develop over portions of southern Mexico this weekend and continue
through Tuesday. This will pose a threat of flash flooding and
mudslides. For more information, see products from your local
weather office.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/0300Z 12.8N 97.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 12.8N 98.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 13.2N 98.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 13.7N 98.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 14.2N 98.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 30/1200Z 14.7N 98.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 31/0000Z 15.7N 96.9W 80 KT 90 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
96H 01/0000Z 17.2N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
NNNN