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POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152022
2100 UTC SUN OCT 30 2022
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)
COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 5(20) X(20)
BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 26(47) X(47)
BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) X(16)
BELIZE CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) X(20)
PUERTO BARRIOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
PUERTO BARRIOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 10(41) X(41)
GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 7(17) X(17)
GUANAJA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
S SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5)
TEGUCIGALPA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
P SAN JOSE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5)
GUATEMALA CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6)
TAPACHULA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) X(10)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 21(25) 12(37) X(37) X(37)
GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X 4( 4) 19(23) 3(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27)
KINGSTON 34 1 15(16) 13(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/CANGIALOSI
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