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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lisa Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152022
500 AM EDT Tue Nov 01 2022
 
...LISA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TODAY...
...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO 
INVESTIGATE THE STORM... 


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 80.5W
ABOUT 230 MI...375 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
along the northern coast of Honduras from Punta Castilla westward
to the Guatemala border.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bay Islands
* Belize coast from north of Puerto Barrios to south of Chetumal
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bay Islands
* Entire north coast of Honduras
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Guatemala from border with Honduras to Puerto Barrios
* Mexico from Chetumal to Punta Herrero.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico should monitor the progress of Lisa.  Tropical Storm and
Hurricane Warnings will likely be required for portions of the
coasts of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico this morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lisa was
located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 80.5 West. Lisa is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h).  This general motion 
with some decrease in forward speed is forecast during the next 
couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Lisa will pass 
south of the Cayman Islands today, move near or over the Bay Islands 
of Honduras early Wednesday, and approach Belize later on Wednesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected, and Lisa is forecast to become a 
hurricane by early Wednesday over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the Bay Islands of
Honduras beginning early Wednesday and are possible along the coast
of Belize Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are
expected along the northern coast of Honduras within the Tropical 
Storm Warning area tonight through Wednesday.  Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Mexico
and Guatemala beginning Wednesday afternoon.
 
RAINFALL: Through Thursday evening, Tropical Storm Lisa is expected 
to produce rainfall amounts of:

* 3 to 5 inches with local amounts to 8 inches across portions 
of Belize and the Bay Islands of Honduras.  
* 2 to 4 inches with local amounts to 6 inches across portions 
of Jamaica, eastern Yucatan Peninsula, Northern Honduras, and 
Guatemala.
* 1 inch with local amounts to 2 inches across portions of the 
Cayman Islands and eastern Nicaragua.

This rainfall could produce flash floods from northern Honduras 
northward to the eastern Yucatan peninsula.
 
STORM SURGE:  A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3
to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Belize in areas of onshore winds and 1 to 3 feet for the Bay Islands
of Honduras. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and damaging waves.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Lisa are expected to affect Jamaica and
the Cayman Islands during the next day or so, and will begin to
affect Central America later today. These swells could cause 
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult 
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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