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Tropical Depression Lisa Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152022
1000 PM CDT Thu Nov 03 2022
 
Satellite imagery, radar data, and surface observations indicate the
center of Lisa is still inland over southeastern Mexico. The
precipitation associated with the depression has maintained some
organization in radar data from Sabancuy tonight. Showers and
thunderstorms wrap most of the way around the center, with some
fragmented outer bands noted around the northern portion of the
circulation offshore of southeastern Mexico. A couple of Pemex buoys
in this region have reported sustained winds of 20 kt or so during
the past few hours, and the initial intensity of the depression is
held at 25 kt for this advisory.
 
Lisa is still moving westward at 275/10 kt. A west-northwestward to
northwestward motion is expected on Friday and Friday night as
the cyclone moves around a low- to mid-level ridge. Then, the
models indicate the shallow vortex will likely stall and meander
within the weak low-level environmental flow over the southwestern
Gulf. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and
remains near the multi-model consensus aids.
 
Although Lisa is forecast to emerge over the warm waters of the Bay 
of Campeche early Friday, strong south-southwesterly upper-level 
winds and drier mid-level air should inhibit any significant 
development. In fact, model-simulated satellite imagery from the GFS 
and ECMWF show all convection being stripped away from the center 
during the next 24-48 h by 25-30 kt of deep-layer shear. Therefore, 
the official intensity forecast keeps Lisa a depression, and it 
calls for the cyclone to become a remnant low in 48 h and dissipate 
on Sunday night.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Isolated flash flooding is possible across portions of 
southeastern Mexico.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0300Z 18.1N  93.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 12H  04/1200Z 18.7N  94.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
 24H  05/0000Z 19.6N  95.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 20.2N  95.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  06/0000Z 20.3N  95.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  06/1200Z 19.8N  95.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 
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