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TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142022
1500 UTC WED OCT 12 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
EASTWARD TO FRONTERA.  THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM CABO ROJO TO
TUXPAN HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TUXPAN TO FRONTERA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N  94.7W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE  60SE  75SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.7N  94.7W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N  94.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 22.0N  94.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  50SE  60SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.6N  94.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 20.9N  94.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 20.0N  94.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 19.1N  94.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.1N  95.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.7N  94.7W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 12/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI/BROWN
 
 
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