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Tropical Storm Karl Special Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022
100 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Karl
found believable SFMR wind speeds between 48-52 kt east of the
center. Based on these observations, the initial intensity is
increased to 50 kt. The near-term intensity forecast has been
raised to account for the higher initial intensity. The reasoning
for the intensity forecast has not changed from the earlier
advisory. Karl is still expected to gradually weaken until
making landfall in 60-72 h.
The official track forecast has been adjusted slightly eastward at
12 and 24 hours based on its recent motion and now reflects a
hairpin turn to the right that should be complete in about 24 hours.
1. Heavy rainfall could produce instances of flash flooding, with
mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of Veracruz
and Tabasco states in Mexico.
2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in
Mexico starting on Thursday night or Friday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/1800Z 22.0N 94.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 22.2N 94.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 21.6N 94.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 20.9N 94.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 20.0N 94.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 15/0000Z 19.1N 94.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 18.1N 95.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW