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BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132022
500 PM AST Thu Oct 06 2022
 
...DISTURBANCE BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ABC ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA THROUGH FRIDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 68.7W
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SSE OF CURACAO
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM ESE OF NTHRN TIP OF GUAJIRA PNSULA COLOMBIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Islands Colombia
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of Colombia from Riohacha eastward to the Colombia/Venezuela
border
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 to 24 hours.
 
Interests along the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor
the progress of the disturbance.  Additional watches or warnings
could be required tonight or on Friday.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
11.6 North, longitude 68.7 West.  The system is moving toward the
west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected to
continue through Sunday.  On the forecast track, the system is
expected to move near the ABC Islands, the coast of northwestern
Venezuela, and the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia through Friday
morning.  The system is then forecast to move across the
southwestern Caribbean Sea, moving near San Andres and Providencia
Islands Saturday night, and approaching the coast of Nicaragua on
Sunday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next few days.  The system 
is expected to become a tropical depression or tropical storm by 
tonight.  The system is then expected to become a hurricane by 
Saturday night as it approaches the coast of Nicaragua.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches) 
based on observations from Bonaire and Curacao.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible on the Colombian islands of
San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina Saturday night, with
tropical storm conditions possible by Saturday afternoon.
 
Tropical storm conditions are expected along the coast of Colombia 
within the warning area by early Friday.  Gusts to tropical
storm force are also possible across the ABC Islands and the
northwestern coast of Venezuela today and tonight.
 
RAINFALL:  Potential Tropical Cyclone Thirteen is expected to
produce the following rain accumulations through early Monday:
 
Northern Coastal Venezuela...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao...3 to 6 inches
Guajira Peninsula...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
San Andres and Providencia...6 to 12 inches
Eastern Nicaragua...6 to 10 inches, isolated 16 inches.
Central Nicaragua...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
Southwest Costa Rica and Extreme Western Panama...4 to 8 inches,
isolated 12 inches
 
This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.  There is
also the potential for life-threatening mudslides across portions of
Central America this weekend.
 
STORM SURGE:  A storm surge could raise water levels by as much as
1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds on San Andres, Providencia, and Santa
Catalina Islands.  Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by
large and damaging waves.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by disturbance will affect the ABC Islands
and portions of the coasts of northwestern Venezuela and the Guajira
Peninsula of Colombia through Friday.  Swells could reach Jamaica,
Providencia, and San Andres on Saturday, and portions of the coast
of Central America on Sunday.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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