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Tropical Depression Twelve Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122022
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 04 2022
 
The convective structure associated with the depression this evening
appears to be evolving from one that previously had the center
embedded in deep convection to more of a shear pattern, with only a
singular burst of deep convection occuring to the east of the
estimated center. This evolution is a result of southwesterly
vertical wind shear which is increasing over the system currently.
Unfortunately scatterometer data this evening largely missed the
small circulation. Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates remain
unchanged from 6 hours ago, and thus the latest intensity is held at
30 kt for this advisory.
 
The depression remains positioned along the southwestern side of a 
mid-level ridge which is helping to steer the system generally 
north-northwestward, estimated at 335/8-kt. This synoptic steering 
pattern should remain in place with a strong mid- to upper-level low 
maintaining the weakness north of the cyclone. The latest track 
forecast was only nudged just a bit westward, shifting the NHC track 
in the direction of the consensus aids.
 
The previously mentioned shear is expected to increase further to 
over 30 kt in about 24 hours, with sea surface temperatures 
gradually decreasing along the forecast track. The global and 
regional hurricane model guidance responds to this unfavorable 
environment by opening up the circulation of the depression into a 
surface trough sometime in the 36-48 hour period. The latest 
forecast now shows little intensification with the depression 
dissipating in 48 hours.
 
It should be noted that some of the deterministic and ensemble model 
guidance suggest that the forecast remains of this system may have 
an opportunity to regenerate back into a tropical cyclone in the 
subtropical Atlantic well away from land in about 5 days. At this 
juncture, that possibility will not be reflected in the current 
forecast.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0300Z 15.3N  30.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 16.3N  31.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 17.7N  32.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  06/1200Z 19.1N  34.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  07/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 
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