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Tropical Depression Hermine Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102022
200 AM CVT Sun Sep 25 2022
 
Hermine is barely holding on a as a tropical cyclone. Southwesterly 
vertical wind shear has increased to nearly 30 kt which has stripped 
away the cyclone's deep convection across the Canary Islands.  The 
advisory intensity is set at 30 kt based on the latest Dvorak CI 
value from TAFB.  The shear is forecast to increase dramatically to 
50 kt by 24 h, and 70 kt by 48 h while Hermine remains over marginal 
SSTs and in a dry thermodynamic environment. Therefore, there is 
fairly high confidence that sustained organized deep convection will 
not regenerate near the center of the cyclone, and the system should 
become a remnant low later this morning. The NHC intensity forecast 
is unchanged from the previous one.
 
The depression is moving northward at 10 kt, and that motion is 
expected to continue during the next day or so while Hermine moves 
in the flow on the west side of a subtropical ridge.  After that 
time, a building surface ridge north of the cyclone should cause it 
to turn west-northwestward or northwestward.  The NHC track forecast 
is little changed from the previous one and remains near the middle 
of the guidance envelope.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0300Z 22.9N  20.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 24.0N  20.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  26/0000Z 24.7N  19.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  26/1200Z 25.2N  20.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  27/0000Z 25.5N  21.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  27/1200Z 26.1N  23.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
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Forecaster Latto
 
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