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Tropical Storm Hermine Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102022
800 AM CVT Sat Sep 24 2022
 
Hermine is barely holding on as a tropical storm.  This morning's 
satellite presentation consists of an exposed surface circulation 
situated well to the south-southwest of the deep convective mass.  
The initial intensity is set at a generous 35 kt.
 
The southwesterly shear is currently affecting Hermine's cloud 
pattern is predicted to increase while the thermodynamic 
surrounding environment becomes progressively inhibiting.  
Therefore, Hermine may hang on as a tropical storm today, but 
weakening is expected to occur soon, and the cyclone should 
degenerate into a remnant low-pressure system on Monday.
The latest NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous 
one, and is on the high end of the guidance.
 
The 0900 UTC position is based on a centroid point between 
multiple surface swirls, one well to the south of the 
convection and another near the edge of the convective canopy. 
Hermine's initial motion is estimated to be northward, or 355/9 kt.
Hermine is expected to turn toward the northeast around the
northwest periphery of the east Atlantic subtropical ridge Sunday 
evening.  By Monday evening, the vertically shallow remnant low 
should turn toward the northwest in the east Atlantic trade wind 
flow.  No significant changes were made to the NHC track forecast, 
which lies in the middle of the model guidance suite.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/0900Z 20.2N  20.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 21.5N  20.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 23.3N  20.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z 24.6N  20.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  26/0600Z 25.4N  20.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  26/1800Z 25.7N  21.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  27/0600Z 26.2N  22.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 
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