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NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Hurricane IAN


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
HURRICANE IAN SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  23           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022               
1100 UTC WED SEP 28 2022                                            
                                                                    
AT 1100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 
NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 135   
KTS...155 MPH...250 KM/H.                                           
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
DANVILLE VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   8(10)   3(13)   X(13)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   8(10)   2(12)   X(12)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   6(10)   2(12)   X(12)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   8(13)   1(14)   X(14)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   9(13)   1(14)   X(14)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   6(13)  14(27)   2(29)   X(29)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34  X   4( 4)   7(11)   8(19)  14(33)   1(34)   X(34)
BEAUFORT MCAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   7(10)   1(11)   X(11)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   6( 6)   6(12)   4(16)  11(27)   X(27)   X(27)
SAVANNAH GA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
KINGS BAY GA   34  4  10(14)  25(39)   8(47)   6(53)   X(53)   X(53)
KINGS BAY GA   50  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   6(13)   2(15)   X(15)   X(15)
KINGS BAY GA   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
WAYCROSS GA    34  3   6( 9)  10(19)   3(22)   2(24)   X(24)   X(24)
 
MAYPORT NS FL  34  4  13(17)  29(46)   8(54)   5(59)   X(59)   X(59)
MAYPORT NS FL  50  X   2( 2)  12(14)   6(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)
MAYPORT NS FL  64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  4  13(17)  23(40)   4(44)   2(46)   X(46)   X(46)
JACKSONVILLE   50  X   2( 2)   5( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
JACKSONVILLE   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
GAINESVILLE FL 34  6  37(43)  18(61)   1(62)   X(62)   X(62)   X(62)
GAINESVILLE FL 50  1   5( 6)   7(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
GAINESVILLE FL 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  8  55(63)  18(81)   2(83)   1(84)   X(84)   X(84)
DAYTONA BEACH  50  2  14(16)  31(47)   2(49)   X(49)   X(49)   X(49)
DAYTONA BEACH  64  X   3( 3)  21(24)   1(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
 
THE VILLAGES   34 26  56(82)   9(91)   1(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)
THE VILLAGES   50  3  21(24)  19(43)   1(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
THE VILLAGES   64  X   5( 5)   7(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
ORLANDO FL     34 44  47(91)   5(96)   1(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
ORLANDO FL     50  4  50(54)  20(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)   X(74)
ORLANDO FL     64  1  21(22)  20(42)   1(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34 38  46(84)   6(90)   1(91)   1(92)   X(92)   X(92)
COCOA BEACH FL 50  3  32(35)  20(55)   1(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)
COCOA BEACH FL 64  X  11(11)  23(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 
PATRICK AFB    34 39  45(84)   7(91)   1(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)
PATRICK AFB    50  3  33(36)  20(56)   1(57)   X(57)   X(57)   X(57)
PATRICK AFB    64  X  12(12)  22(34)   X(34)   1(35)   X(35)   X(35)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34 54  32(86)   2(88)   1(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)
FT PIERCE FL   50  3  20(23)  12(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
FT PIERCE FL   64  1   4( 5)   8(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
W PALM BEACH   34 53  23(76)   2(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)
W PALM BEACH   50  3   6( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
W PALM BEACH   64  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
FT LAUDERDALE  34 49  17(66)   2(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)
FT LAUDERDALE  50  3   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
FT LAUDERDALE  64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
MIAMI FL       34 33  25(58)   2(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)   X(60)
MIAMI FL       50  3   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
HOMESTEAD ARB  34 27  22(49)   1(50)   1(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)
HOMESTEAD ARB  50  3   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MARATHON FL    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
MARATHON FL    50  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
KEY WEST FL    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
KEY WEST FL    50  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NAPLES FL      34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
NAPLES FL      50 94   1(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
NAPLES FL      64 30   4(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 
FT MYERS FL    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
FT MYERS FL    50 96   2(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
FT MYERS FL    64 58  14(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)   X(72)
 
VENICE FL      34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
VENICE FL      50 95   2(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
VENICE FL      64 67  17(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)   X(84)
 
TAMPA FL       34 95   4(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
TAMPA FL       50 30  41(71)   2(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)   X(73)
TAMPA FL       64  4  23(27)   2(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34 26  35(61)   6(67)   1(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)
CEDAR KEY FL   50  3   5( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
CEDAR KEY FL   64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  3   6( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)   1(13)   X(13)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  3   7(10)   4(14)   X(14)   X(14)   1(15)   X(15)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  4   5( 9)   3(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  5   7(12)   3(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  3   4( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 
DESTIN EXEC AP 34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  3   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  5  14(19)  10(29)   1(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  3   4( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
ANDROS         34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
HAVANA         34  4   3( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BLAKE                                                    
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