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HURRICANE IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022
1500 UTC TUE SEP 27 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. EAST COAST FROM
MARINELAND FLORIDA TO THE MOUTH OF ST. MARY'S RIVER INCLUDING THE
ST. JOHNS RIVER...AND THE DRY TORTUGAS.  ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST...A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SUWANEE RIVER TO
ANCLOTE RIVER.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM
SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH TO CHOKOLOSKEE.
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE ST.
MARY'S RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST HAS BEEN
EXTENDED NORTH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA AND SOUTH TO BOCA RATON
FLORIDA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF BOCA RATON TO
EAST OF FLAMINGO FLORIDA...FOR THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA 
BAY.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO
SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...AND ARTEMISA
* BONITA BEACH TO ANCLOTE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
* DRY TORTUGAS
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SUWANEE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO
* TAMPA BAY
* DRY TORTUGAS
* MARINELAND TO THE MOUTH OF THE ST. MARY'S RIVER
* ST. JOHNS RIVER
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS
* SUWANNEE RIVER TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER
* FLAMINGO TO BONITA BEACH
* LOWER AND MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS
* BOCA RATON TO ALTAMAHA SOUND
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
* FLORIDA BAY
* AUCILLA RIVER TO SUWANEE RIVER
* MOUTH OF ST. MARY'S RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* SOUTH OF MARINELAND TO THE VOLUSIA/FLAGLER COUNTY LINE
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF ANCLOTE RIVER TO SUWANNEE RIVER
* SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH TO CHOKOLOSKEE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SUWANNEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS
* NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* SOUTH OF BOCA RATON TO EAST OF FLAMINGO
* UPPER FLORIDA KEYS
* FLORIDA BAY
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL 
NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER 
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW 
EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N  83.5W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR   5 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  963 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 180SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N  83.5W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N  83.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 24.4N  83.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 26.0N  83.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 110SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 27.1N  82.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...190NE 120SE 130SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 27.8N  82.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 70NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...300NE 120SE 120SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 28.5N  81.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...300NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 29.5N  81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT...300NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 33.0N  81.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 35.0N  81.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N  83.5W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 27/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 
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