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HURRICANE IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022
0300 UTC TUE SEP 27 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...AND ARTEMISA
* ENGLEWOOD TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
* DRY TORTUGAS
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANCLOTE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO
* TAMPA BAY
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS
* LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
* FLAMINGO TO ENGLEWOOD
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
* DRY TORTUGAS
* FLORIDA BAY
* AUCILLA RIVER TO ANCLOTE RIVER
* ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE
* SAINT JOHNS RIVER
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF ANCLOTE RIVER TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
* BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO THE CHANNEL 5 BRIDGE
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* NORTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS
* JUPITER INLET TO ALTAMAHA SOUND
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC...
AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.
PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY
ACTIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS IN CENTRAL CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IAN.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N  83.4W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  962 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  25SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT.......100NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE  75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N  83.4W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N  83.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.8N  83.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 24.5N  83.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 26.1N  83.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 110SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 27.2N  83.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  35SW  35NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 27.9N  82.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 120SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 28.6N  82.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 120SW 150NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 31.3N  82.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 35.0N  81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N  83.4W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 27/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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