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HURRICANE IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092022
2100 UTC MON SEP 26 2022
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS.
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ANCLOTE RIVER SOUTHWARD
TO FLAMINGO...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY.
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND TO THE
FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE...INCLUDING THE ST. JOHNS RIVER. A 
STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AUCILLA RIVER TO THE 
ANCLOTE RIVER.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM ENGLEWOOD SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD.
 
THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM ENGLEWOOD TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER...INCLUDING
TAMPA BAY...HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING. A HURRICANE
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE ANCLOTE RIVER TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO
INDIAN PASS...AND FROM JUPITER INLET TO ALTAMAHA SOUND.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR GRAND CAYMAN AND THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF ISLA DE JUVENTUD...PINAR DEL RIO...AND ARTEMISA
* ENGLEWOOD TO THE ANCLOTE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
* DRY TORTUGAS
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANCLOTE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO FLAMINGO
* TAMPA BAY
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...MAYABEQUE...AND MATANZAS
* LOWER FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
* FLAMINGO TO ENGLEWOOD
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
* DRY TORTUGAS
* FLORIDA BAY
* ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE
* SAINT JOHNS RIVER
* AUCILLA RIVER TO ANCLOTE RIVER
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF ANCLOTE RIVER TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER
* BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO THE CHANNEL 5 BRIDGE
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* NORTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS
* JUPITER INLET TO ALTAMAHA SOUND
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO
36 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING 
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE 
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR 
A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT 
HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS 
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO 
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR 
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER 
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS IN CENTRAL CUBA...THE REMAINDER OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IAN.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N  83.2W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  25SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT.......100NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N  83.2W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N  83.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.7N  83.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 23.6N  84.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 25.3N  83.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  70SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 110SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 26.7N  83.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  35SW  35NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 27.5N  83.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 120SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 28.1N  82.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE 120SW 150NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 30.1N  82.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 33.5N  82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N  83.2W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 27/0000Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER REINHART
 
 
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