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Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 30 2022
Deep convection has ceased now that Ian has lost its energy source
from the Atlantic Ocean, and the circulation has wrapped into cooler
surface air. Thus, Ian has transitioned into an extratropical low.
The initial wind speed is set to 60 kt based on elevated
hurricane-force winds still being observed on radar offshore of
eastern South Carolina.
Ian continues to move faster to the north, around 13 kt, and should
turn to the north-northwest later today due to a shortwave trough
over the southeastern United States. Ian should rapidly weaken in
the cool airmass and dissipate by early Sunday over western North
Carolina or Virginia. No significant changes were made to the
track or intensity forecast.
It should be emphasized that just because Ian has become a
post-tropical cyclone that the danger is not over. Dangerous storm
surge, flash flooding and high winds are still in the forecast from
1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge this evening
along the coasts of the Carolinas within the Storm Surge Warning
2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected along the coasts of South
Carolina and southeastern North Carolina within the warning area
through early Saturday.
3. Ongoing major-to-record river flooding will continue through
next week across portions of central Florida. Considerable flooding
is expected today across portions of coastal and northeast South
Carolina, coastal North Carolina and southeast Virginia. Locally
considerable flooding is possible across portions of northwest North
Carolina and southern Virginia today into early Saturday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 30/2100Z 33.9N 79.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 01/0600Z 35.8N 79.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 01/1800Z 37.5N 80.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP