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Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 PM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022
Ian remains inland over central Florida at this time. Although the
eye is no longer evident on satellite or radar imagery, it
continues to have a well-organized cloud pattern, and surface
observations show hurricane-force winds near the system's core.
Assuming a decay rate similar to that given by the Decay-SHIPS
model, the current intensity is set at 80 kt. Given the lack of
pressure observations from surface stations, the central pressure is
estimated using a blend of standard wind/pressure relationships.
Steady weakening will occur while Ian continues to move over land.
Although not explicitly shown by the official forecast, the cyclone
could still be at hurricane strength when it reaches the central
east coast of Florida or the southeast U.S. coast. Therefore, a
hurricane warnings and watches are in effect for that area. The
environment during the next 36 hours or so does not appear to be
conducive for strengthening, with strong shear and dry air
prevailing. However some intensification is possible due to a
favorable trough interaction. The official intensity forecast is
above the model guidance at this time.
Ian continues to move north-northeastward, or about 030/7 kt.
Over the next couple of days, the system should move around a
trough near the southeastern U.S. and west of a subtropical ridge
over the southwestern Atlantic. The official track forecast is
shifted slightly east of the previous one and is on top of the new
Since the radar presentation of the center has degraded, and the
center is no longer easily trackable, hourly Tropical Cyclone
Updates will no longer be issued.
1. Severe and life-threatening storm surge inundation of 8 to 10
feet above ground level along with destructive waves is ongoing
along the southwest Florida coastline from Englewood to Bonita
Beach, including Charlotte Harbor.
2. Hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, will continue to
spread across central Florida near the core of Ian through early
Thursday. Hurricane conditions are expected along the east-central
Florida coast overnight through early Thursday.
3. Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flooding, with major to
record river flooding, will continue across portions of central
Florida tonight with considerable flooding in northern Florida,
southeastern Georgia and eastern South Carolina expected tomorrow
through the end of the week.
4. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge on Thursday
and Friday along the coasts of northeast Florida, Georgia, and South
Carolina, with hurricane conditions possible. Residents in these
areas should follow any advice given by local officials.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0300Z 27.5N 81.4W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
12H 29/1200Z 28.4N 80.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 30/0000Z 29.6N 80.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 30/1200Z 31.3N 80.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 33.1N 80.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 01/1200Z 35.0N 81.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 02/0000Z 37.0N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP