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Tropical Storm Earl Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062022
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 05 2022

Earl's cloud pattern consists of a rather round area of very deep 
convection with a few ragged banding features over the eastern 
portion of the circulation.  Doppler wind data from a NOAA Hurricane 
Hunter aircraft investigating the tropical cyclone indicate that 
the intensity is now near 60 kt and the central pressure has fallen 
to around 991 mb.  Thus, Earl is very close to hurricane strength 
at this time.  Radar reflectivity images from the aircraft show an 
eye-like feature is developing.  The Doppler wind data from the 
aircraft also reveal that the vortex is becoming more vertically 
aligned than it had been.

During the next few days, the system will be moving through an 
area of diffluent anticyclonic upper-level flow, and the 
thermodynamic environment should be conducive for intensification.  
These factors, along with the current strengthening trend, argue 
for continued intensification despite the presence of significant 
southwesterly shear through 48 hours.  The official intensity 
forecast is close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus, HCCA, prediction 
and continues to call for Earl to eventually become a major 
hurricane.

Aircraft and satellite fixes indicate that Earl is moving northward 
near 6 kt.  The tropical cyclone should continue to move through a 
weakness in the subtropical ridge for the next 48 hours or so.  
Thereafter, a broad approaching trough in the southern stream 
of the mid-latitude westerlies should cause Earl to turn toward the 
north-northeast and then northeast, with some acceleration.  The 
official track forecast is just slightly to the left of the 
previous NHC track in the 2-3 day time frame and is close to the 
latest HCCA solution.

Earl's center is expected to pass to the southeast of Bermuda in
around 3-4 days. However, the size of the wind field of the 
tropical cyclone is expected to increase significantly, and 
interests on the island should continue to monitor the progress of 
the storm closely.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0300Z 22.9N  65.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 23.6N  65.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 24.7N  65.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 25.8N  65.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 27.3N  65.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  08/1200Z 29.0N  64.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  09/0000Z 30.8N  63.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  10/0000Z 35.5N  58.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  11/0000Z 41.0N  53.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 
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Forecaster Pasch
 
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