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Hurricane Danielle Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052022
900 PM GMT Fri Sep 02 2022
 
The satellite presentation of Danielle has degraded some this 
afternoon. Drier mid-level air appears to have wrapped into the 
circulation, and the cyclone now has more of a banded structure 
around the western and southern portions of the system. Recently, 
infrared cloud top temperatures have cooled within a small ring of 
inner core convection. Based on a blend of the subjective Dvorak 
estimates from SAB and TAFB, the initial intensity is held at 65 kt 
for this advisory.

Danielle is nearly stationary, as it remains under weak steering 
currents with a blocking high pressure ridge positioned over the 
North Atlantic. The cyclone is expected to meander or drift slowly 
westward over the next couple of days. As the ridge weakens and 
retreats westward, Danielle should begin moving northeastward 
more-typical mid-latitude flow by Monday. Then, the cyclone is 
forecast to gradually accelerate northeastward during the middle of 
next week. The track guidance has shifted considerably to the left 
this cycle, and the latest NHC track forecast has been adjusted in 
this direction, toward the HFIP corrected consensus (HCCA).

The upwelling of cooler water underneath slow-moving Danielle is 
likely to prevent much strengthening in the near term. However, the 
deep-layer shear is expected to remain weak for the next couple of 
days. So, there is still potential for a bit of strengthening if the 
cyclone is able to drift farther west of its current position. By 
72 h, Danielle is forecast to cross the 26C isotherm and move into 
a more highly-sheared environment, which is expected to induce a 
weakening trend through the rest of the forecast period. The latest 
NHC intensity forecast has been lowered from the previous one and 
lies near or just below the various model consensus aids. Around day 
5, Danielle is forecast to interact with an upper-level trough and 
begin the process of extratropical transition.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/2100Z 37.9N  43.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 38.0N  43.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 38.0N  44.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 38.1N  44.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 38.3N  44.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  05/0600Z 39.0N  44.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 39.6N  43.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 41.5N  41.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 43.0N  37.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart
 
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