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Tropical Storm COLIN

Tropical Storm Colin Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032022
500 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022
A small area of low pressure formed along a surface trough just 
offshore of Savannah, Georgia, yesterday morning and moved inland 
across the Lowcountry of South Carolina by the evening.  Deep 
convection formed near the low center as it was moving inland and 
has persisted and become better organized over the past 6 to 12 
hours.  In addition, surface observations and ASCAT data from 
02-03 UTC indicated that an area of sustained 35-kt winds had 
developed offshore and near the coast of South Carolina.  As a 
result, and rather unexpectedly, Tropical Storm Colin has formed 
near the South Carolina coast, centered just inland a bit to the 
northeast of Charleston.
Colin is moving northeastward just inland of the coast with a
motion of 045/7 kt.  A low- to mid-level area of high pressure
is located over the western Atlantic, and Colin is expected to move
northeastward and then east-northeastward around that high during
the next 48 hours.  The bulk of the available track guidance
suggests that Colin's center will move along or just inland of the
coasts of South and North Carolina during the next 36 hours, and the
NHC track forecast is generally a blend of the GFEX and HCCA
consensus aids.
Northwesterly shear of roughly 15-20 kt is expected to continue 
affecting Colin during the next 36 hours or so, with that shear 
increasing to 30 kt or more by 48 hours.  As a result, strengthening 
is not anticipated, and Colin is expected to remain a sheared 
tropical storm while it moves across coastal areas of the Carolinas, 
with tropical-storm-force winds primarily limited to the southeast 
of the center.  Colin is likely to dissipate over the western 
Atlantic soon after 48 hours.
1.  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area along the northeastern coast of South Carolina this morning
and will spread northeastward within the warning area along the
North Carolina coast this afternoon into Sunday.
2.  Areas of heavy rainfall may result in localized flash flooding
across portions of coastal South and North Carolina through Sunday
INIT  02/0900Z 33.2N  79.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 12H  02/1800Z 33.9N  78.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 24H  03/0600Z 34.8N  77.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  03/1800Z 35.7N  75.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER PAMLICO SOUND
 48H  04/0600Z 36.8N  72.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER ATLANTIC OCEAN
 60H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
Forecaster Berg