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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Bonnie Advisory Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022
 
...BONNIE HAS FORMED AND IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN
NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 81.0W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM ESE OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Nicaragua has discontinued the Hurricane Watch
for the Caribbean coast and issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
Pacific coast.
 
The government of Costa Rica has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch
to a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the Pacific coast.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Andres Colombia
* Limon Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi Nicaragua
* Cabo Blanco Costa Rica northward to the border of Nicaragua and
Honduras
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
12 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along both the Caribbean and Pacific coasts of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica, as well as the Pacific coasts of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico, should monitor the
progress of this system.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was
located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 81.0 West. Bonnie is
moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h) and a continued 
westward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is 
expected through Saturday night.  A west-northwestward motion is 
expected to begin on Sunday and continue into Monday.  On the 
forecast track, the system will move across the southwestern 
Caribbean Sea today, cross southern Nicaragua or northern Costa 
Rica tonight, and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean on Saturday. 
The system will then move offshore of but parallel to the coasts of 
El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico Saturday through Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Bonnie is expected to strengthen before it makes landfall 
tonight.  After landfall, short term weakening is forecast on 
Saturday, but Bonnie is expected to restrengthen later this weekend 
and early next week over the eastern Pacific.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
north of the center.
 
The minimum central pressure is estimated to be 1005 mb (29.68 
inches) based on data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Bonnie can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Bonnie will produce heavy rain
across portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica through Saturday. The
following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:
 
Nicaragua and Costa Rica: 4 to 8 inches, localized 12 inches. This
rainfall is expected to result in life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected over San Andres
Island today.  Tropical storm conditions are expected to
reach the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Caribbean coasts of
Nicaragua and Costa Rica by this evening and will spread westward
to the Pacific coast within the warning areas overnight.
 
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi
 
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