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BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
500 PM AST Tue Jun 28 2022
 
...DISTURBANCE NEARING THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.1N 59.5W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM E OF TRINIDAD
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Venezuela has issued a Tropical Storm Watch
for the northern coast of Venezuela from the Peninsula de Paraguana
westward to the Colombia/Venezuela border including the Gulf of
Venezuela.
 
The government of Colombia has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the northeastern coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela
border westward to Santa Marta.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Trinidad and Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies
* Islas de Margarita, Coche and Cubagua
* Bonaire
* Curacao
* Aruba
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana
* Coast of Venezuela from the Peninsula de Paraguana
westward to the Colombia/Venezuela border including the Gulf of
Venezuela.
* Coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela
border westward to Santa Marta
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, the northern coast of
Venezuela, and the northeastern coast of Colombia should monitor the
progress of this system.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
10.1 North, longitude 59.5 West. The system is moving toward the
west near 24 mph (39 km/h).  A westward or west-northwestward
motion is expected through Thursday.  On the forecast track, the
system will pass near or over portions of the southern Windward
Islands tonight, and move over the southern Caribbean Sea or near
the northern coast of Venezuela and the northeast coast of 
Colombia on Wednesday and Thursday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days if the 
disturbance remains over water.
 
Conditions appear conducive for development if the disturbance
remains over water, and it will likely become a tropical storm near
the southern Windward Islands or while moving westward across the
southern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high ...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rain across the southern Windward Islands, the northeastern
coast of Venezuela, and the ABC Islands through Wednesday.
The following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:
 
Islands from Guadeloupe to St. Lucia: 1 to 3 inches.
 
St. Vincent, the Grenadines, and Barbados: 3 to 5 inches.
 
Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, and northeastern Venezuela: 4 to 6
inches.
 
Aruba, Curacao, and Bonaire: 3 to 5 inches.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
the southern Windward Islands this evening and tonight, over Islas
Margarita and the adjacent islands Wednesday morning,  and over the
ABC Islands by Wednesday evening.  Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area along the northeastern coast of Venezuela
tonight, and in the watch area along the northwestern coast of
Venezuela and the northeastern coast of Venezuela by Wednesday
night and early Thursday.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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