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POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022022
1500 UTC WED JUN 29 2022
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR ISLAS DE MARGARITA...COCHE AND CUBAGUA...AND
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF VENEZUELA
FROM PEDERNALES TO CUMANA.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BONAIRE
* CURACAO
* ARUBA
* COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM THE PENINSULA DE PARAGUANA
WESTWARD TO THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER INCLUDING THE GULF OF
VENEZUELA.
* COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER WESTWARD TO
SANTA MARTA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA AND THE
NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ALONG THE
CARIBBEAN COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA SHOULD ALSO MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 67.3W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 67.3W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 66.3W
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 11.8N 70.0W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 12.0N 73.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 12.1N 77.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 11.9N 80.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 0SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 11.7N 83.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 30SE 20SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 11.6N 86.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 12.3N 91.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 13.3N 97.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 67.3W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 29/1800Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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