ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
1100 PM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022

The disturbance has become somewhat better organized since the last 
advisory,  Last-light visible imagery showed a swirl of low-clouds 
marking a vorticity center, and the convection has been increasing 
near and northwest of the swirl.  In addition, an Air Force Reserve 
Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported a pressure of 1005 mb when it 
passed through the swirl.  However, the plane was unable to close 
off a well-defined circulation, and the aircraft wind data suggests 
the possibility that the swirl is to the north of a broader 
circulation.  Thus, the system is still not a tropical cyclone.  
The aircraft data indicates that the initial intensity remains near 
35 kt.

The initial motion is 270/18.  A mid-tropospheric ridge extending 
southwestward into the northwestern Caribbean Sea should cause the 
disturbance to move a little south of west for the next 12 to 24 
h.  Then from 24-72 h, a more zonally-oriented ridge is likely to 
result in a generally westward track across Central America into 
the eastern Pacific.  After that time, the system should move 
west-northwestward on the southwestern periphery of the ridge, 
parallel to and south of the coast of Mexico.  The new NHC track 
forecast has no significant changes from the previous forecast and 
lies close to the various consensus models.

While the warm-water, light-shear environment of the southwestern 
Caribbean is favorable for development, so far little development 
has occurred and the system is running out of time before it 
reaches Central America.  The intensity forecast calls for an 
intensity of 50 kt by 24 h, and it is still possible that the 
system could be near hurricane strength before it reached Central 
America in about 30 hours.  Weakening should occur while the system 
crosses Central America, followed by re-intensification over the 
Pacific.  The new intensity forecast has some minor adjustments from 
the previous forecast.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Heavy rainfall is possible across Nicaragua and Costa Rica by 
Friday. Areas of life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are 
expected.
 
2. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane
Watch area along the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua late Friday.
 
3. Tropical storm conditions are expected on San Andres on Friday,
along the Caribbean coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua within the
Tropical Storm Warning areas late Friday, and are possible within
the Tropical Storm Watch areas along the Pacific coasts of Costa
Rica and Nicaragua on Saturday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0300Z 11.8N  77.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  01/1200Z 11.5N  80.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  02/0000Z 11.3N  82.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 11.4N  85.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  03/0000Z 11.6N  87.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN
 60H  03/1200Z 12.2N  90.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  04/0000Z 13.0N  93.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  05/0000Z 14.5N  99.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  06/0000Z 16.0N 104.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
NNNN