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Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
1100 AM EDT Thu Jun 30 2022
 
The disturbance has not become significantly better organized since
yesterday with a large curved convective band over the northern
portion of the system.  Some limited deep convection is forming
near the location of the low-level vorticity maximum, which is where
a center is expected to form.  However, visible satellite images 
and surface observations along the coast of Colombia indicate that 
the system still has not developed a well-defined center of 
circulation, so the disturbance will be kept as a potential tropical 
cyclone for now.  The advisory intensity remains at 35 kt, just 
above the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB.  Air Force and NOAA 
Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to be in the area this 
afternoon to determine whether a closed circulation has formed and 
to better assess the intensity of the system. 
 
The initial motion estimate remains rapidly westward, 270/17 kt.  A
strong mid-level ridge extending southwestward over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea should force the disturbance/tropical cyclone on
a slightly south-of-due-west heading as it moves toward Central
America.  A more zonal orientation of the ridge after after 36
hours will likely result in a more westward motion across Central
America and into the eastern North Pacific.  In 3-5 days, the
system should move west-northwestward, south of the coast of Mexico,
on the southwest side of the ridge.  The official track forecast is
quite close to the previous one and also in close agreement with
the latest multi-model consensus, TVCN.

The expected slowing of forward speed makes it more likely that the 
disturbance will acquire a closed circulation soon.  A very 
low-shear environment with SSTs near 28 deg C and fairly moist low- 
to mid-tropospheric air favors intensification of the system until 
it reaches Central America.  The official forecast is close to the 
simple and corrected intensity model consensus.  The NHC forecast 
does not explicitly show the system reaching hurricane strength over 
the southwestern Caribbean.  However since there is a possibility it 
could strengthen into a hurricane, the Hurricane Watch is maintained 
for a portion of the coast of Nicaragua.
 
  
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Heavy rainfall is possible across portions of northern Colombia 
through this morning, and then across Nicaragua and Costa Rica by 
Friday. Areas of life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are 
expected.
 
2. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane
Watch area along the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua late Friday.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected on San Andres on Friday, 
along the Caribbean coasts of Costa Rica and Nicaragua within the 
Tropical Storm Warning areas late Friday, and are possible within 
the Tropical Storm Watch areas along the Pacific coasts of Costa 
Rica and Nicaragua on Saturday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/1500Z 12.0N  74.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  01/0000Z 11.7N  77.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  01/1200Z 11.2N  80.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  02/0000Z 11.1N  83.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  02/1200Z 11.0N  85.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 60H  03/0000Z 11.2N  87.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN
 72H  03/1200Z 11.8N  90.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  04/1200Z 13.2N  96.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  05/1200Z 14.5N 102.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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