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Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
1100 PM EDT Wed Jun 29 2022
 
Last-light visible satellite imagery suggests that the disturbance
is gradually developing a closed circulation  However, surface
observations from the ABC islands, as well as imagery from the
Curacao radar, indicate that the center is poorly defined.  In
addition, the associated convection has become less organized
during the past several hours.  Based on this, the system will not
be upgraded to a tropical storm at this time.  The initial
intensity remains 35 kt, with these winds most likely occurring
over the open Caribbean to the north of the ABC Islands.

The initial motion is now 275/18 kt.  A large mid-level ridge to 
the north of the system should steer it generally westward for the 
next 2-3 days with some decrease in forward speed, with a more 
west-northwestward motion after the system crosses Central America 
into the Pacific.  The track guidance has nudged a little farther 
south through the first 60 h or so, so the new forecast track is 
also nudged a little southward and lies close to the 
various consensus models.

Warm sea surface temperatures, a moist air mass, and light shear 
should allow the system to develop as it moves away from land later 
tonight and on Thursday.  The current forecast continues to call 
for the system to become a tropical storm and then be just below 
hurricane strength as it nears the coast of Nicaragua in about 48 h. 
Significant weakening should occur over Central America, followed 
by re-intensification over the eastern Pacific.  The new intensity 
forecast follows the overall trend of the guidance and is similar to 
the previous forecast.


KEY MESSAGES:
 
1.  Heavy rainfall is expected to spread westward across the ABC
Islands, portions of northern Venezuela, and northeast Colombia
through Thursday morning, then across Nicaragua and Costa Rica by
Friday. Areas of flash flooding are expected, along with the
potential for mudslides.
 
2.  Tropical storm conditions are expected along the northwestern
coast of Venezuela and the northeastern coast of Colombia tonight
and early Thursday.
 
3.  Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area along the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua by late Friday, with
tropical storm conditions possible by Friday afternoon.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0300Z 12.0N  70.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  30/1200Z 12.1N  73.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  01/0000Z 12.0N  77.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  01/1200Z 11.7N  80.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  02/0000Z 11.4N  83.7W   60 KT  70 MPH...NEAR NICARAGUA COAST
 60H  02/1200Z 11.3N  86.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER PACIFIC OCEAN
 72H  03/0000Z 11.5N  88.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  04/0000Z 12.5N  94.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  05/0000Z 14.0N 100.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 
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