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Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
500 PM AST Wed Jun 29 2022
The system has changed little in organization today, and
in fact has taken on a more elongated appearance. Most of the
heavier showers and stronger winds are occurring in a long band over
the northern portion of the disturbance. Reports from a NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft and a Dvorak classification indicate that
the current intensity remains near 35 kt. High-resolution visible
satellite images suggest that the system may trying to close off a
center to the south of the ABC Islands, but the surface
observations are still not very conclusive. Radar images from
Curacao also do not yet show a definite center. The system
could make the transition to a tropical cyclone at any time.
The initial motion continues to be rapidly westward, or 280/18 kt.
There is not much change in the track forecast reasoning.
The flow on the southern side of a large mid-tropospheric ridge to
the north of the system should maintain a mainly westward track for
most of the forecast period. The latest HCCA prediction shows a
slightly more southern track after 1-2 days than before, likely due
to the input from the ECMWF model. The new NHC forecast is not
much different from the previous one, but is only a little farther
south after 36 hours or so.
Since the system is expected to remain in a low-shear environment,
it is likely to strengthen after it moves away from the influence
of the South American land mass. The system is expected to
approach hurricane strength over the southwestern Caribbean, and a
Hurricane Watch has been issued for a portion of the
Caribbean coast of Nicaragua. After some expected weakening from
crossing Central America, the system should regain strength over the
eastern North Pacific basin.
1. Heavy rainfall is expected to spread westward across the ABC
Islands, portions of northern Venezuela, and northeast Colombia
through Thursday morning, and reach Nicaragua and Costa Rica by
Friday. Areas of flash flooding are expected, along with the
potential for mudslides.
2. Winds to tropical storm force are expected over the ABC Islands
for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected along
the northwestern coast of Venezuela and the northeastern coast of
Colombia tonight and early Thursday.
3. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area along the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua by late Friday, with
tropical storm conditions possible by Friday afternoon.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/2100Z 11.6N 69.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 30/0600Z 11.8N 71.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 30/1800Z 12.0N 75.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 11.7N 79.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 11.4N 82.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 02/0600Z 11.1N 85.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 02/1800Z 11.2N 87.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 03/1800Z 12.3N 92.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 13.5N 98.5W 65 KT 75 MPH