ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
1100 AM AST Wed Jun 29 2022
 
The disturbance continues to appear fairly well organized on 
satellite images, with convective banding features noted over the 
northern portion of the system.  However, low cloud motions from 
high-resolution visible satellite images and Curacao radar 
observations suggest that the system still does not have a closed 
circulation.  A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to 
investigate the disturbance this afternoon.  The initial intensity 
estimate remains at 35 kt in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from 
TAFB, and the system could become a tropical storm at any time 
today.

Based on recent satellite fixes, the initial motion estimate is not 
quite as fast as earlier, or about 280/21 kt.  A large mid-level 
ridge to the north of the system is forecast to be maintained for 
the next few days.  This should force a continued westward, or 
slightly north of westward, motion.  The official track forecast is 
in good agreement with the model consensus, and takes the system 
across Central America by Saturday morning.

There is upper-level anticyclonic outflow over the area, and the
vertical shear is forecast to remain low.  Some strengthening seems 
likely, but the interaction with the land mass of South America 
will probably limit intensification for the next day or so.  In 36 
to 48 hours, when the system should be moving over the southwestern 
Caribbean Sea, it could approach hurricane strength.  The official 
intensity forecast is similar to the corrected model consensus 
prediction.  After the system crosses Central America and moves 
into the eastern North Pacific basin, the environment should be 
conducive for at least gradual strengthening. 
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1.  Heavy rainfall is expected to spread westward across the 
Windward Islands and parts of northern Venezuela and northern 
Colombia today through Thursday morning. Localized flash flooding 
and mudslides will be possible.
 
2.  Winds to tropical-storm-force are expected over the ABC Islands 
by this afternoon.  Tropical storm conditions are expected along the 
northwestern coast of Venezuela and northeastern Colombia tonight 
and early Thursday.
 
3.  There is greater-than-normal uncertainty in the system's 
forecast intensity once it reaches the southwestern Caribbean Sea on 
late Thursday and Friday, which will depend on how much it interacts 
with land from tonight through early Thursday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/1500Z 11.4N  67.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  30/0000Z 11.8N  70.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  30/1200Z 12.0N  73.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z 12.1N  77.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  01/1200Z 11.9N  80.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 60H  02/0000Z 11.7N  83.7W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 72H  02/1200Z 11.6N  86.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 96H  03/1200Z 12.3N  91.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
120H  04/1200Z 13.3N  97.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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