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Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
500 AM AST Wed Jun 29 2022
If I just took a casual look at conventional satellite data, I would
think the system was already a tropical storm. There is a big ball
of convection near the center, along with banding features forming
in most of the quadrants of the system. Microwave data, however,
does not show much low-level structure, with only broad curvature
and no obvious indications of a well-defined center. Thus, the
system remains a disturbance, and the initial wind speed remains 35
kt based on Dvorak estimates from TAFB.
One reason that the system has been unable to close off a
circulation so far is the very rapid speed, now estimated at 26 kt
(or even faster in the short-term). All of the guidance continue
to insist the system will slow down over the next few days due to
less low-level ridging over the western part of the Atlantic basin.
The low could even lose latitude over the southwestern Caribbean
due to the orientation of the mid-level ridge, which more models
are showing. The new forecast is faster than the previous one,
ahead of the model consensus, placing more weight on the ECMWF than
the GFS, the latter of which has been much too slow with this
The disturbance will probably be struggling with, or recovering
from, land interaction over the next day or so. So little
intensification is shown during that time. Thereafter, the
environment would seem to be conducive for significant
strengthening, but it is unknown what kind of structure the system
will have to potentially take advantage of the conducive conditions.
Additionally, with the faster forward speed, it should spend less
time over water for strengthening. Thus, the intensity forecast is
reduced somewhat from the previous one, but generally remains above
the model consensus. Interestingly, almost all of the models
indicate that the system will survive passage across Central America
and intensify in the eastern Pacific. This is now indicated in the
official forecast, and could be conservative at long range.
1. Heavy rainfall is expected to continue across the Windward
Islands and spread into parts of northern Venezuela through tonight.
Localized flash flooding will be possible.
2. Winds to tropical-storm-force are expected over Islas Margarita
for a few more hours, and over the ABC Islands by this afternoon.
Tropical storm conditions are expected along the northwestern coast
of Venezuela and northeastern Colombia tonight and early Thursday.
3. There is a greater-than-normal uncertainty in the system's
forecast intensity once it reaches the southwestern Caribbean Sea
late Thursday and Friday, which will depend on how much it interacts
with land from tonight through Thursday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/0900Z 11.3N 65.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 29/1800Z 11.7N 68.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 30/0600Z 12.2N 72.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 12.2N 75.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 12.0N 79.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 01/1800Z 11.8N 82.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 11.8N 85.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 03/0600Z 12.3N 91.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 04/0600Z 13.5N 97.0W 45 KT 50 MPH