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Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022
500 PM AST Tue Jun 28 2022
The disturbance continues to generate strong convection with some
banding features over the northern portion of the system.
Nonetheless, observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft,
including Tail Doppler radar wind data, along with imagery from the
Barbados radar indicate that the system still lacks a closed
Given that the disturbance should continue to move through a
low-shear and moderately moist atmospheric environment for the next
couple of days, some intensification is possible, and the
system is expected to make the transition to a tropical cyclone
on Wednesday. However interaction with land, including low-level
inflow off the land mass of South America will likely limit
intensification until the system reaches the southwestern Caribbean
Sea later this week. More significant strengthening, possibly into
a hurricane, could occur over the latter region as shown in the
official forecast. Late in the forecast period, the global models
suggest that the cyclone's low-level circulation will remain intact
after crossing Central America and this is also shown by the NHC
Although the center position is not precise, the initial motion
estimate continues to be quickly westward or about 280/21 kt.
There is no significant change to the track forecast philosophy. A
strong mid-tropospheric ridge is expected to be maintained to
the north of the system through this week. Therefore a continued
westward to west-northwestward motion is expected through the
forecast period. The official forecast track remains about the
same and closely follows the dynamical model consensus.
1. Heavy rainfall is expected across the Windward Islands,
northeastern Venezuela, and the ABC Islands through Wednesday.
Localized flash flooding will be possible.
2. Winds to tropical-storm-force are expected over portions of the
southern Windward Islands tonight, over Islas Margarita Wednesday
morning, and over the ABC Islands by Wednesday evening. Tropical
storm conditions are possible along the northeastern coast of
Venezuela tonight and early Wednesday.
3. There is a greater-than-normal uncertainty in the system's
forecast intensity once it reaches the southwestern Caribbean Sea
late Thursday and Friday, which will depend on how much it interacts
with land from tonight through Thursday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 28/2100Z 10.1N 59.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 29/0600Z 10.8N 62.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 29/1800Z 11.4N 66.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 30/0600Z 11.9N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 12.1N 73.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 01/0600Z 12.1N 77.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 12.0N 80.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 12.0N 85.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 03/1800Z 13.0N 90.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...OVER THE PACIFIC