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Tropical Storm Alex Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022
1100 AM EDT Sun Jun 05 2022
Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Alex has strengthened a little since the last advisory. The
aircraft reported a central pressure near 993 mb and maximum
flight-level winds of 89 kt at 850 mb in the southeastern quadrant.
However, the maximum reliable SFMR surface wind estimates are near
50 kt, so as mentioned previously the strongest winds may not be
mixing down to the surface. Based on these data, the initial
intensity is set to a possibly conservative 50 kt. Satellite
imagery shows that Alex remains sheared, with the strongest
convection to the east and northeast of the center. This was
confirmed by the aircraft data, which indicated that the 850 and 700
mb centers were displaced from the surface center.
The initial motion is quickly east-northeastward or 060/20 kt. A
general east-northeastward motion is expected during the next 24 h
or so, with the center of Alex passing north of Bermuda on Monday.
After that, the GFS, ECWMF, and Canadian models forecast an
eastward motion at a slower forward speed as Alex weakens, becomes
extratropical, and becomes a shallow and elongated vortex. The
new intensity forecast follows this scenario and is similar to the
previous forecast. However, by 72-96 h the forecast track is to
the south of the various consensus models, and some adjustment to
this part of the forecast may be necessary later.
Some additional strengthening is possible during the next 12 h.
After that, a combination of strong shear, dry air entrainment, and
cooler sea surface temperatures along the forecast track should
cause Alex to weaken. The cyclone is expected to become
extratropical by 48 h and dissipate completely by 120 h. The new
intensity forecast has only minor changes from the previous
1. Alex is forecast to pass near or just north of Bermuda on Monday,
and tropical storm conditions are expected on the island late
tonight and Monday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/1500Z 30.4N 73.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 31.7N 70.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 33.1N 66.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 34.2N 61.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 34.6N 57.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 08/0000Z 34.9N 53.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 08/1200Z 35.0N 50.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/1200Z 35.5N 47.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP