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Tropical Depression SANDRA (Text)


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Tropical Depression Sandra Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192021
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
700 PM PST Mon Nov 08 2021
 
Sandra's satellite presentation continues to degrade. Visible
imagery shows that the low-level center has been exposed for most
of the day, with limited deep convection located north and east of
the center. Latest analyses indicate that the depression is 
embedded in an environment characterized by significant 
southwesterly vertical wind shear, and Sandra is barely hanging on 
as a tropical cyclone. The current intensity for this advisory has 
been maintained at 30 kt, primarily based on earlier ASCAT data, 
which indicated these winds were limited to the northeast and east 
semicircles.
 
Sandra has been moving generally toward the west today, but there
have been some short-term wobbles in the track as occasional pulses
of deep convection helped to pull the center slightly northward. The
smoothed initial motion estimate for this advisory is 270/13 kt.
The updated track forecast anticipates that surface high pressure 
building north of the system will keep it on general westward 
track, with a slight turn toward the west-southwest on Tuesday. 
This is in line with a tightly clustered guidance suite, and very 
close to the TVCN consensus.
 
Guidance indicates that southwesterly vertical wind shear on the
order of 20-30 kt will persist, as the decaying cyclone remains
between an upper-level anticyclone to the east and a trough to the
northwest. This environment is not conducive for organized deep
convection to persist over the center, and Sandra is forecast to
soon degenerate into a remnant low. The updated intensity forecast
indicates this will occur early Tuesday, with dissipation following
soon thereafter, closely following SHIPS guidance and the ECMWF
global model solution.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0300Z 15.3N 119.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 15.2N 120.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  10/0000Z 14.7N 122.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Birchard
 
NNNN

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Page last modified: Friday, 31-Dec-2021 12:10:15 UTC