ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Sandra Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192021 Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 700 PM PST Mon Nov 08 2021 Sandra's satellite presentation continues to degrade. Visible imagery shows that the low-level center has been exposed for most of the day, with limited deep convection located north and east of the center. Latest analyses indicate that the depression is embedded in an environment characterized by significant southwesterly vertical wind shear, and Sandra is barely hanging on as a tropical cyclone. The current intensity for this advisory has been maintained at 30 kt, primarily based on earlier ASCAT data, which indicated these winds were limited to the northeast and east semicircles. Sandra has been moving generally toward the west today, but there have been some short-term wobbles in the track as occasional pulses of deep convection helped to pull the center slightly northward. The smoothed initial motion estimate for this advisory is 270/13 kt. The updated track forecast anticipates that surface high pressure building north of the system will keep it on general westward track, with a slight turn toward the west-southwest on Tuesday. This is in line with a tightly clustered guidance suite, and very close to the TVCN consensus. Guidance indicates that southwesterly vertical wind shear on the order of 20-30 kt will persist, as the decaying cyclone remains between an upper-level anticyclone to the east and a trough to the northwest. This environment is not conducive for organized deep convection to persist over the center, and Sandra is forecast to soon degenerate into a remnant low. The updated intensity forecast indicates this will occur early Tuesday, with dissipation following soon thereafter, closely following SHIPS guidance and the ECMWF global model solution. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 15.3N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 15.2N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 10/0000Z 14.7N 122.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Birchard NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 31-Dec-2021 12:10:15 UTC