ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Sandra Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192021 700 PM PST Sun Nov 07 2021 Sandra was briefly devoid of convective activity earlier today, but its organization has somewhat improved during the past several hours. Bursts of deep convection have been noted in the northeastern quadrant of the tropical cyclone. The well-defined low-level center became exposed earlier today due to 20 kt of southwesterly deep-layer shear over Sandra, but the center has recently moved closer to the edge of a small convective cloud mass. The objective and subjective satellite estimates range from 30-35 kt, and the initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory. Hopefully, a scatterometer pass samples the storm later tonight to help assess its intensity and structure. A ridge to the north and east of Sandra is steering the cyclone west-northwestward, and its estimated motion is 285/10 kt. Sandra is expected to gradually turn westward over the next couple of days, as the vertically shallow circulation becomes increasingly steered by the low-level flow. Little change is noted in the latest track guidance, and the official NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one, with just slight southward adjustments based on the consensus aids. Moderate (15-20 kt) southwesterly shear is forecast to persist over Sandra for the next 12-24 h, then strengthen thereafter. Given that Sandra has already struggled to maintain organized convection, the system is likely to be short-lived. The cyclone is expected to weaken on Monday as the increasing shear strips away its remaining convection. Sandra should degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low early Tuesday and then open up into a trough and dissipate by Wednesday. The latest NHC intensity forecast remains in good agreement with the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 14.2N 116.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 14.7N 117.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 15.2N 118.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 15.4N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 10/0000Z 15.1N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart NNNN
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