ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Terry Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021 800 PM MST Mon Nov 08 2021 Although Terry is producing more deep convection this evening, recent microwave images show that the system still has a weak and ragged appearance with the low-level center located near the eastern edge of the main area of deep convection. The microwave images also suggest that the circulation is less defined and stretching out from east to west. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, based on the earlier ASCAT data, which is a little below the latest Dvorak estimates. Hopefully the next round of ASCAT data will provide more information on Terry's intensity and structure. There remains no change to the track forecast reasoning. Terry is currently moving westward, or 280 degrees, at 12 kt. A west to west-northwest motion is expected during the next 12 to 24 hours, followed by a due westward motion after that as Terry moves within the flow on the south side of a deep-layer ridge. The models are in good agreement, and the NHC track forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope. Terry has been struggling due to mid-level wind shear and intrusions of dry air. Since these environmental conditions are likely to persist, gradual weakening still seems likely. The most difficult question is how long Terry will hang on as a tropical depression. Some of the models show Terry opening into a trough within a couple of days while others strengthen the system. Given the divergence in the model solutions, the NHC intensity forecast has been held steady and shows Terry dissipating by day 4. This forecast remains on the low side of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 10.7N 109.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 11.1N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 11.4N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 11.7N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 11.6N 118.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 11/1200Z 11.4N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 11.2N 123.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 31-Dec-2021 12:10:14 UTC