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Tropical Depression Terry Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
800 PM MST Mon Nov 08 2021
Although Terry is producing more deep convection this evening,
recent microwave images show that the system still has a weak and
ragged appearance with the low-level center located near the eastern
edge of the main area of deep convection. The microwave images
also suggest that the circulation is less defined and stretching out
from east to west. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, based on
the earlier ASCAT data, which is a little below the latest Dvorak
estimates. Hopefully the next round of ASCAT data will provide more
information on Terry's intensity and structure.
There remains no change to the track forecast reasoning. Terry is
currently moving westward, or 280 degrees, at 12 kt. A west to
west-northwest motion is expected during the next 12 to 24 hours,
followed by a due westward motion after that as Terry moves within
the flow on the south side of a deep-layer ridge. The models are in
good agreement, and the NHC track forecast remains near the middle
of the guidance envelope.
Terry has been struggling due to mid-level wind shear and intrusions
of dry air. Since these environmental conditions are likely to
persist, gradual weakening still seems likely. The most difficult
question is how long Terry will hang on as a tropical depression.
Some of the models show Terry opening into a trough within a couple
of days while others strengthen the system. Given the divergence in
the model solutions, the NHC intensity forecast has been held steady
and shows Terry dissipating by day 4. This forecast remains on the
low side of the guidance envelope.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0300Z 10.7N 109.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 11.1N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 11.4N 113.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 11.7N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 11.6N 118.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 11/1200Z 11.4N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 11.2N 123.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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