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Tropical Depression Terry Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182021
200 PM MST Mon Nov 08 2021
 
Although Terry's overall convective organization remains poor, a
1526 UTC ASCAT-A overpass indicated that the circulation was better
defined than last evening.  The scatterometer data revealed peak
winds of 25-26 kt, and given the typical undersampling from that
instrument the initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory.
Mid-level shear and the ingestion of a drier and stable air mass
have continued to take a toll on the cyclone.  These conditions are
not expected to abate during the next couple of days, and some 
additional weakening is possible during that time.  Although some of 
the guidance suggests that Terry could reach a more favorable
environment later in the period, the ECMWF and UKMET models 
continue to weaken the system and the NHC forecast again shows the 
system degenerating into a remnant low by 72 hours and dissipate by 
day 4. 
 
Terry continues to move west-northwestward or 285/13 kt.  As stated
in the past several advisories, the steering currents ahead of
Terry remain well established and there is no change to the 
forecast track reasoning.  The cyclone will continue to move
west-northwestward to westward to the south of a strong deep-layer
over western Mexico.  The latest suite of dynamical model tracks is 
slightly north of and slower than the previous model envelope.  As 
a result, the official NHC track forecast has been adjusted 
accordingly, and is a blend of the HFIP corrected consensus (HCCA) 
and the simple consensus aids. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/2100Z 10.5N 108.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 11.0N 109.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 11.4N 112.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 11.6N 114.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 11.7N 117.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 60H  11/0600Z 11.6N 120.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 72H  11/1800Z 11.5N 122.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  12/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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