ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021 900 AM CST Sun Nov 07 2021 The depression's convective pattern remains quite disorganized this morning. Although there are several blobs of convection and areas of colder cloud tops, there is no evidence of curved banding in both convection satellite and recent microwave data. It is difficult to tell if the circulation has become any better defined since the ASCAT overpass last evening. Hopefully the ASCAT instrument will provide a better assessment of the system's structure and strength later today. Subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates are in the 30-35 kt range, and given the lack of organization and earlier scatterometer data, the initial wind speed is held at 30 kt. The center of the depression has been difficult to locate this morning, but recent fixes and continuity from the previous advisory suggest it is moving westward or 275/12 kt. A deep-layer ridge to the north of the depression should continue to steer it westward to west-northwestward during the next several days. The model envelope has trended a little farther north this cycle, but the NHC forecast remains similar to the previous advisory, along the southern edge of the envelope closest to the GFS, HWRF, and HMON solutions. The depression is forecast to remain in low wind shear conditions during the next several days, but a drier and more stable airmass just to the north is likely to limit intensification. The NHC forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory and still shows the system reaching tropical storm status within the next couple of days. By 72 hours, the vertical shear is predicted to increase and the mid-level humidity in the surrounding environment is forecast to decrease. These negative factors should cause weakening and degeneration of the system to a remnant low by 96 hours, and dissipation by day 5. This is supported by the GFS and ECMWF models which weaken the system within the ITCZ after midweek. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 8.2N 101.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 8.7N 103.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 9.2N 105.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 9.5N 108.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 9.8N 110.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 10/0000Z 10.1N 113.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 10.1N 115.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 10.2N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 31-Dec-2021 12:10:14 UTC