ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021 400 AM CDT Sat Nov 06 2021 The depression's associated deep convection remains poorly organized, and recent ASCAT scatterometer surface wind data indicate that the inner-core wind field is elongated northeast to southwest. In addition, the highest ASCAT wind speeds noted were 25-27 kt. Based on that ASCAT data, the intensity has been lowered to 25 kt, which is consistent the T1.0 and T1.5 satellite classifications from TAFB and SAB, respectively. The depression is moving just south of due west, or 260/12 kt. A westward to west-northwestward motion along the southern periphery of a sprawling deep-layer ridge entrenched to the north and northwest of the cyclone is forecast to continue for the next 5 days. The new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies near or a tad south of the tightly-packed consensus track models. Entrainment of dry air mid- and upper-level air from the south is expected to prevent any significant organization of deep convection from occuring for the next 24 h or so despite the very low vertical shear conditions of around 5 kt. Thereafter, the combination of low shear, a slightly more moist environment, and warmer sea-surface temperatures of 27.5-28C should allow for some modest strengthening to occur on days 2-5. The latest NHC official intensity forecast is the same as the the previous forecast, and closely follows an average of the various simple- and corrected intensity consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 8.6N 95.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 8.4N 97.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 8.2N 99.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 8.3N 101.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 8.9N 104.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 08/1800Z 9.3N 106.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 9.6N 109.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 10.3N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 10.6N 119.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 31-Dec-2021 12:10:14 UTC