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Tropical Depression Eighteen-E Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182021
400 AM CDT Sat Nov 06 2021
The depression's associated deep convection remains poorly
organized, and recent ASCAT scatterometer surface wind data indicate
that the inner-core wind field is elongated northeast to southwest.
In addition, the highest ASCAT wind speeds noted were 25-27 kt.
Based on that ASCAT data, the intensity has been lowered to 25 kt,
which is consistent the T1.0 and T1.5 satellite classifications from
TAFB and SAB, respectively.
The depression is moving just south of due west, or 260/12 kt. A
westward to west-northwestward motion along the southern periphery
of a sprawling deep-layer ridge entrenched to the north and
northwest of the cyclone is forecast to continue for the next 5
days. The new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory
track, and lies near or a tad south of the tightly-packed consensus
track models.
Entrainment of dry air mid- and upper-level air from the south is
expected to prevent any significant organization of deep convection
from occuring for the next 24 h or so despite the very low vertical
shear conditions of around 5 kt. Thereafter, the combination of low
shear, a slightly more moist environment, and warmer sea-surface
temperatures of 27.5-28C should allow for some modest strengthening
to occur on days 2-5. The latest NHC official intensity forecast is
the same as the the previous forecast, and closely follows an
average of the various simple- and corrected intensity consensus
models.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0900Z 8.6N 95.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 8.4N 97.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 8.2N 99.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 8.3N 101.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 8.9N 104.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 9.3N 106.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 9.6N 109.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 10.3N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 10.6N 119.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
$$
Forecaster Stewart
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