ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM RICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172021
0900 UTC SAT OCT 23 2021
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) X(12)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)
ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8)
MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
MAZATLAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) X(13)
SAN BLAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
SAN BLAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 3(20) X(20)
P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
15N 105W 34 2 3( 5) 5(10) 5(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 35(40) 1(41) X(41)
BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12)
BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
MANZANILLO 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 11(17) 42(59) 1(60) X(60)
MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 1(22) X(22)
MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
L CARDENAS 34 1 6( 7) 24(31) 37(68) 17(85) X(85) X(85)
L CARDENAS 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 20(25) 21(46) X(46) X(46)
L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 15(25) X(25) X(25)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 2 6( 8) 27(35) 29(64) 10(74) X(74) X(74)
ZIHUATANEJO 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 14(18) 9(27) X(27) X(27)
ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11)
15N 100W 34 4 11(15) 5(20) 3(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25)
15N 100W 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ACAPULCO 34 2 4( 6) 8(14) 6(20) 3(23) X(23) X(23)
ACAPULCO 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
P MALDONADO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
NNNN
NHC on Facebook
Twitter
YouTube
NHC Blog: