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BULLETIN
Hurricane Rick Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172021
100 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021
 
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS RICK SLIGHTLY 
STRONGER... 
...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ACROSS THE COASTAL
WARNING AREAS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 101.7W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rick was located
by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 17.2 
North, longitude 101.7 West. Rick is moving toward the north near 6 
mph (9 km/h). A slightly faster motion toward the north or 
north-northwest is expected over the next day or so. On the 
forecast track, the center of Rick will make landfall on the coast 
of Mexico within the hurricane warning area later this morning.
 
Data from the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate 
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph 
(155 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight additional strengthening 
is possible before Rick reaches the coast of Mexico. After 
landfall, rapid weakening is expected, and Rick is forecast to 
dissipate over the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico tonight or 
Tuesday.
 
Rick is a compact tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds only
extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). A
Mexican Navy observing station in Puerto Vicente in the state of
Guerrero reported a wind gust to 58 mph (93 km/h) within the past 
several hours.
 
The minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft 
data is 977 mb (28.85 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Rick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2, WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC,
and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?key_messages.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are already occurring within 
portions of the Tropical Storm and Hurricane Warning areas, and 
hurricane conditions are expected within a portion of the Hurricane 
Warning area this morning and early afternoon. 
 
STORM SURGE:  A storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of
where the center of Rick makes landfall in southwestern Mexico.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.
 
RAINFALL:  Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated storm total amounts of 20 inches across coastal sections of
the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through Monday. This
heavy rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Rick will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico through early Tuesday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
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Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown/D. Zelinsky
 
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