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Hurricane Rick Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
700 AM CDT Sun Oct 24 2021
...RICK EXPECTED TO BRING FLOODING RAINFALL, A DANGEROUS STORM
SURGE, AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
BEGINNING LATER TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco
* West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rick was located
near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 101.7 West. Rick is moving
toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h), and a slightly faster motion
toward the north-northwest or north is expected over the next day or
two. On the forecast track, the center of Rick will approach the
coast of Mexico today and tonight and make landfall on the coast of
Mexico within the hurricane warning area late tonight or on Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast today while Rick moves closer to
the coast of Mexico. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected,
and Rick is forecast to dissipate over the mountainous terrain of
southern Mexico Monday night or Tuesday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60
miles (95 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
Key messages for Rick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2, WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC,
and on the web at
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area beginning tonight, with tropical storm conditions
expected by this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected
within the Tropical Storm Warning areas by this afternoon.
STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of
where the center of Rick makes landfall in southwestern Mexico.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
RAINFALL: Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated storm total amounts of 20 inches across coastal sections of
the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through Tuesday. This
heavy rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides.
SURF: Swells generated by Rick will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next day or two. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.