ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Rick Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021 400 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021 Rick's satellite presentation has improved overnight with a warm spot occasionally evident within the central dense overcast. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that provided two center penetrations into the hurricane overnight measured peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 96 kt, and SFMR surface winds of 85-89 kt. Based on these data, the initial wind speed has been increased to 90 kt. Dropsonde data indicate that the minimum pressure is around 977 mb. With the center now very close to the coast of southern Mexico, little change in strength is expected before Rick crosses the coast within the next couple of hours. After landfall, rapid weakening should occur while the cyclone moves over the rugged terrain of southern Mexico, and the circulation is likely to dissipate within 24-36 hours, if not sooner. Satellite and aircraft fixes indicate that Rick is moving a little faster just west of due north or 350/7 kt. A low-latitude mid-level ridge to the east of Rick should steer the cyclone northward to north-northwestward until dissipation occurs. This motion will bring the center inland over southern Mexico by later today. The dynamical model guidance is in good agreement although most of the model trackers lose the system after 12 hours due to dissipation of the low-level circulation. The updated NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory and close to the TCVN multi-model consensus aid. Key Messages: 1. Rick is forecast to make landfall along the southern coast Mexico within the next couple of hours, bringing life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds to a portion of the Hurricane Warning area. 2. Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning areas through late today. 3. Heavy rains associated with Rick are expected to spread across the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through tonight, and could persist through Tuesday. This rainfall will likely produce dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 17.7N 101.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 18.7N 102.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 24H 26/0600Z 19.8N 102.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown NNNN
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