ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA
Hurricane Rick Discussion Number 5...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021
Corrected to show dissipated at 27/1200Z
Rick continues to quickly become better organized on satellite
images, with a growing Central Dense Overcast surrounded by a
well-defined convective band wrapping almost completely around the
circulation. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB were 65 kt at around 1200 UTC and with the steady strengthening
trend underway, the advisory intensity is set at 70 kt.
Upper-outflow is prominent over all quadrants of the cyclone. An
Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate Rick later today to provide additional intensity and
Latest high-resolution visible satellite images indicate that the
hurricane is moving a little faster toward the north-northwest, or
at about 345/6 kt. Rick is expected to move between
north-northwest and north, through a weakness in the
mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge, during the next couple of days.
There continues to be significant spread in the track guidance
models with the GFS being the easternmost and fastest, taking
Rick on a mainly northward track. The ECMWF is slower and farther
west, and some other models are even slower and farther west over
southwestern Mexico or just off the coast. The official track
forecast is, again, shifted somewhat to the east of the previous
one and generally follows the HCCA consensus prediction.
As noted earlier, the atmospheric and oceanic environment for Rick
appears to be very conducive for intensification during the next
24-36 hours, with low shear, high mid-level moisture, and high
oceanic heat content. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index
continues to show a high probability of Rapid Intensification into
Sunday, and this is reflected in the official intensity forecast,
which is near the upper end of the guidance. In 36 to 48 hours,
increasing shear and drier air could cause the strengthening trend
to end or even result in some weakening.
Based on the latest forecast, the government of Mexico has issued
Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings for portions of the southwest
coast of Mexico.
1. Rick is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength when
it reaches the coast of southern Mexico by Sunday night or Monday,
and life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force
winds are expected within the Hurricane Warning area from Tecpan de
Galeana to Punta San Telmo. There is larger-than-normal
uncertainty in the track forecast of Rick, and the arrival time of
hazardous conditions within the watch area could change
significantly with future forecasts. Residents in this area should
follow any advice given by local officials and check updates
to the forecast.
2. Rick is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico as early
as Sunday from east of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco, and by Monday
morning from west of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo, where a Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect.
3. Heavy rains associated with Rick are expected to move into the
Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan starting later today, and
could persist through Monday night. This rainfall will likely
produce flash flooding and mudslides.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/1500Z 14.7N 101.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 15.4N 101.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 16.0N 102.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 16.8N 102.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 18.0N 102.5W 90 KT 105 MPH...ON THE COAST
60H 26/0000Z 19.6N 103.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
72H 26/1200Z 20.5N 103.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND