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BULLETIN
Hurricane Pamela Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162021
900 AM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021
 
...PAMELA FORECAST TO BE NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE 
LANDFALL...
...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO TONIGHT...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 108.9W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Bahia Tempehuaya to Altata
* South of Escuinapa to Cabo Corrientes
* Islas Marias
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Los Barilles to Cabo San Lucas
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force 
winds, in this case within the next 18 hours, producing conditions 
that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations 
to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the 
next 18 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are 
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 18 
hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Pamela was located 
near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 108.9 West. Pamela is moving 
toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion 
should continue this morning, followed by a faster northeastward 
motion by this afternoon or tonight.  On the forecast track, the 
center of Pamela will pass well south of the southern tip of the 
Baja California peninsula through tonight, and make landfall in 
west-central Mexico within the hurricane warning area Wednesday 
morning.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and Pamela is 
expected to be near major hurricane strength when it reaches the 
coast of Mexico early Wednesday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Pamela can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?key_messages.
 
STORM SURGE:  Storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near where the center
of Pamela makes landfall in southwestern Mexico.  Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane
Warning area by late tonight or early Wednesday, with tropical
storm conditions beginning as early as this evening. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area
in Baja California del Sur this afternoon.
 
RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Pamela is expected to produce the 
following rainfall amounts:

Across the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durango...4 to 8 
inches with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. This rainfall may 
trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and 
mudslides.

Across southern portions of Baja California Sur...2 to 4 inches 
with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.

Across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma...3 to 5 
inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. This may result in 
flash and urban flooding.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Pamela will begin to affect portions of
the southern Baja California peninsula, southwestern and
west-central mainland Mexico beginning later today. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Stewart
 
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