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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pamela Advisory Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162021
300 AM MDT Mon Oct 11 2021
 
...PAMELA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN QUICKLY...
...HURRICANE WATCHES LIKELY TO BE ISSUED TODAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 107.6W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests in southern Baja California del Sur, Sinaloa, Durango and
Nayarit should monitor the progress of Pamela.  Watches will likely
be issued for a portion of those states later this morning.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pamela was 
located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 107.6 West. Pamela is 
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this 
general motion is expected today.  A turn to the northwest and then 
north is forecast to occur late today into Tuesday, followed by a 
faster northeast motion by Tuesday night.  On the forecast track, 
Pamela will pass south of the southern tip of the Baja California 
peninsula Tuesday night or early Wednesday and make landfall on 
west-central mainland Mexico on Wednesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast, and Pamela is expected 
to become a hurricane by tonight and a major hurricane before it 
reaches the coast.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Through Wednesday, Pamela is expected to produce the
following rainfall amounts:
 
Across the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durango...4 to 8
inches with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. This rainfall may
trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.
 
Across southern portions of Baja California Sur...2 to 4 inches with
isolated maximum totals of 6 inches.
 
SURF:  Pamela is expected to generate swells that will affect
portions of the southern Baja California peninsula and southwestern
and west-central mainland Mexico by late Tuesday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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